A-Race

The London Tri slips nearer, and I start to get a little nervous.  Not about the race, but about the organisation required.  I read and re-read the race information brochure, making a note of what I need to remember to take. I'm fairly sure I've got it all sorted - I have a trusty list scrawled on a notepad that I've used for the last few events - but I still can't help but think there's something obvious I'm going to be missing.

I spend much of my time scouting on Google Maps, wondering the best way to get to the eXcel Arena on Saturday night.  Google Maps recommends taking a tour around the M25 (2hrs 38 mins, 156 miles), the alternative being to battle through the suburbs and central London, 40 miles less but 10 minutes more. Getting the chance to take in AFC Bournemouth's first game in the Premier League means we'll be leaving it fairly late, by which time I hope that traffic won't be too bad, so the cross-city route seems inviting.

I also plot the bike course on Strava.  It heads west from the arena, across the mouth of the River Lea, a detour into Canary Wharf, and through the Limehouse Link tunnel, before turning around and following itself east, back past the arena, out to Gallon's Reach, before once again doing a u-turn back to the arena.  Rinse and repeat. Pleasingly it works out at exactly 40 kilometres.  I suspect it's almost entirely flat, but Strava's elevation profile shows two spikes of more than 100ft elevation in the middle.  I trace them along, and they turn out to be in the middle of Canary Wharf.  Now, I'm not hugely au fait with Canary Wharf, but I'm pretty sure it's not known for its range of hills and grand vistas, so I assume it's just a slight miscalculation.

My thoughts wonder to timings, so I get hold of last year's results.  I'll admit it's slightly depressing.  Last year, 4500 athletes tackled the Olympic distance.  Based on my anticipated timings and personal bests:

• A 40 minute swim would put around 4000th of 4500, about 90th percentile. That's pretty shocking, but not surprising. 
• A 1:23 bike would put me around 3600th.  Now, granted that time was on open roads with a couple of sizeable hills and traffic, but it's 18mph average, and I've never gone much beyond that on any significant size ride.  If I could tip the speedo to 19mph, that would save me about 4 minutes, and about 400 places.
• A 49:50 run would surprisingly be my best result, at around 2300th.  Of course, the chances of a 10k PB at the end of a tri are slim, but you never know. 
• My goal of hitting 3 hours total would see me finish around 3200th of 4500. Seventieth percentile.  Seems about right.

Weather watch: cloudy but warm, 25 degrees.  Gentle breeze from the south-west.  Sounds decent.

Anyhow, it's all over bar the shouting, nothing to do now but crack on and enjoy it.  

Que sera sera.